In the wake of Viktor Yanukovych's ouster, the Ukrainian Parliament ordered presidential and local elections to be held on 25 May 2014. That date is fast approaching; since the deadline to declare candidacy passed in early April, the ballot has been whittled down to 21 candidates. Notable among the group are candidates Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, and Serhiy Tihipko, who lead the pack, respectively.
Poroshenko, known to Ukraine as the 'Chocolate King' due to this small empire of confectionary outlets, leads with enough of a percentage of the vote to avoid a runoff vote, according to recent polls.
He is no stranger to Ukrainian politics: he served under two administrations, including the ousted Yanukovych's as the Economic Development and Trade Minister. He is viewed by many as a pro-West pragmatist, even going so far as to interpose himself in the middle of a confrontation between pro-Russian and pro-European demonstrators.
There are those who are concerned about him, however, as he has recently said he will seek a normalization of relations with Russia, along with his personal connections to those associated with Russian businesses such as Gazprom.
In a distant second are former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Serhiy Tihipko. Tymoshenko was jailed after her presidential election bid against Yanukovych in 2010 amid allegations of embezzlement and abuse of power, something that many international observers deemed to be questionable and based on partisan politics. She was released in the wake of the Euromaidan Revolution, and has since found her popularity for the upcoming presidential election to be waning.
Tihipko is a finance specialist who also ran in the 2010 presidential election. While he has extensive experience in economics and finance, having been one of the first in Ukraine to open a bank in the wake of the Soviet collapse, his poll numbers have remained relatively static and low, placing him initially in third place, though now he finds himself on an even kilter with Tymoshenko.
The run up to the elections have been marred by protests and violence from the pro-Russian separatists, which has allowed for Poroshenko's position of cracking down on separatist action to gain steam. It is feared that violence in the eastern regions may prevent a few million people from voting. There are currently multiple international organizations set to observe the elections, though there are worries that Ukraine itself may not have enough manpower to fully staff voting areas in all regions.
Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops away from the border of Ukraine, the third time he has done so of late. It is unclear if the troops will actually be moved this time; it is necessary to wait several days, allowing for time to mobilize and clear out the bases near the Ukrainian border. If a withdrawal should happen, Putin may be putting himself in a favorable position to negotiate with the post-election government in Kiev and effectively project de facto control over the pro-Russian groups in the south and east of Ukraine without maintaining an active or overt military presence.
Putin, who favors a future Ukraine with a more federalist setup to give autonomy to the pro-Russian regions, would likely favor a candidate such as Poroshenko, given Poroshenko's business acumen and desire to see a normalization of business. The federalist approach is one not supported by the interim government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the interim Prime Minister, as it rings to those who are old enough to remember as Soviet-era feudalism.
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