A lot of people thought that the race in Oscar's Best Actor in the Leading Role is already a take away for Casey Affleck for his performance in "Manchester by the Sea." But the lock suddenly turned into a heated race when Denzel Washington pulled a surprise win at the Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) for "Fences."
Vox predicted that Washington, who already has two Oscars in his home, would take home the award for playing the character of Troy Maxson, a garbage collector whose views in life was affected by his frustrations in the past. He reprised this role from the Pulitzer Prize-winning play by the late August Wilson, in which he won a Tony award.
They also predicted that Affleck's sexual harassment cases rising up again in the public would cause him the Oscar. Buzzfeed has reported that back in 2010, Affleck was accused by "I'm Still Here" producer Amanda Walker for forwarding "uninvited and unwelcoming" sexual advances towards her. She sued the actor for $2 million but lawsuits were later mediated and settled out of the court.
Affleck received critical acclaim for playing Lee Chandler, a problematic handyman who was assigned by his late brother to be the legal guardian of his son Patrick (played by Lucas Hedges, who already received an Oscar nomination for this role).
He seems to have the lock in the Oscar race after he won the Critics' Choice and the Golden Globe award for his performance. But when he was announced as a nominee for the category, some people protested because of his past actions.
One of them is Constance Wu, an Asian actress known for her show "Fresh Off the Boat." Wu posted on her Instagram account that by honoring Affleck with this performance, Hollywood is erasing the fact that he sexually abused someone.
Awards Circuit also predicted that Washington will nab his third Oscar after his SAG win. SAG has been one of the best predictor of Oscar winners in the acting categories. In the Best Actor category, the SAG winner for Best Actor has been the same with the Oscars for the past 12 years.
The last time that SAG and Oscars didn't match was back in 2003, when Johnny Depp won the award for his role as Captain Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. Sean Penn won the Oscar for Best Actor in Mystic River.
But Affleck has still some chance to get away from the bad reports and get his Oscar. He recently won the award in the British Film Academy Awards, another precursor awards trusted by Oscar predictors. BAFTA did not even nominate Washington in the category and chose Jake Gyllenhaal for his performance in "Nocturnal Animals" to honor instead.
But what about the other nominated actors? Ryan Gosling could also pull an upset against Affleck and Washington for his role in "La La Land." The film is poised to win the coveted Best Picture and Gosling could ride with its attraction to the members of the Academy.
Unfortunately, Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen have no chance in getting the Oscar for their performances in "Hacksaw Ridge" and "Captain Fantastic," respectively. They are lucky to just be nominated and edge out other Best Actor contenders Tom Hanks in "Sully" and Joel Edgerton in "Loving."
So the final prediction on who is going to win Best Actor in the Leading Role is Washington, with Affleck as the alternate winner. Gosling could be the dark horse of the category.
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