The 2014 Hurricane season has been predicted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and experts say it looks about normal or even better.
The NOAA announced that there will be eight to 13 tropical storms, three to six hurricanes and one of two major Category 3 hurricanes during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
During an average hurricane season, there are 13 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
The NOAA's predictions are slightly worse than what leading forecasters at Colorado State University predicted last month. The U.S. extreme weather analysis team said that there will be nine tropical storms, three of which will become hurricanes and one reaching Category 3 with winds more than 111 miles per hour.
"Thanks to the environmental intelligence from NOAA's network of earth observations, our scientists and meteorologists can provide life-saving products like our new storm surge threat map and our hurricane forecasts," said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. "And even though we expect El Niño to suppress the number of storms this season, it's important to remember it takes only one land falling storm to cause a disaster."
The less than average forecast is based on cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean and a prediction that El Niño, a climate condition that creates strong winds, will make it harder for storms to turn into hurricanes. El Niño occurs every three to six years and lasts for about a year. El Niño is also marked by a warming of surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
"Atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the tropical Pacific are already taking on some El Niño characteristics. Also, we are currently seeing strong trade winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, and NOAA's climate models predict these conditions will persist, in part because of El Niño," Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said according to the NOAA. "The expectation of near-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures this season, rather than the above-average temperatures seen since 1995, also suggests fewer Atlantic hurricanes."
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